On the 70th anniversary of Russia’s WWII invasion of Poland, and on the same day a “secret” UN report announces that Iran can now make a nuclear bomb, our Community Organizer in Chief 86′d the Missile Defense system program for Eastern Europe and came up with a new naval based plan that is much more pleasing to the Russians. The Russians are ecstatic that Obama has once again demonstrated U.S. weakness and Obama’s complete ignorance of how to handle international threats. Even some Democrats were amazed that Obama tossed away our only leverage with Russia, which SHOULD have been used to demand that Russia cease and desist all of the military hardware sales and support they are giving Iran to aid them in their pursuit of nuclear weapons. I guess Obama thought giving Russia what it demanded would endear them to us, and they’d suddenly cooperate and tell their ally Iran to take a hike. His naivete is stunning.
Poland is predictably (for those with common sense) angry and offended by this decision. So much so that the Prime Minister of Poland is refusing to take Hillary Clinton’s call. Not only has this weakened us in the eyes of Russia, and angered the only allies who actually supported us with troops during the Iraq war, but it has damaged our credibility. We are now in a position where our promise of protection in return for assisting us militarily means nothing. This means that when Iran gets nuclear weapons, countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia will laugh in our faces when we ask them to rely on us for protection rather than develop their own nuclear arsenals to counter the Iranian threat. Way to create a nuclear arms race in the Middle East Obama. Lord help us if we can’t reign this loose canon in in 2010.
Russian diplomacy is largely a zero-sum game and relies on projecting hard power to force gains, as in last year’s war with Georgia over the rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia or the gas dispute with Ukraine at the start of this year.
Western concepts of “win-win” deals and Obama’s drive for 21st century global partnerships are not part of its vocabulary.
Diplomats here say Moscow hardliners could read the shield backdown as a sign of Washington’s weakness. Far from doing the bidding of the United States, they may instead press for further gains to shore up Russian power in the former Soviet bloc.
Ukraine, Georgia and other Kremlin foes in the ex-Soviet Union may be the first to feel the consequences.
Poland and the Czech Republic are also nervous. In Warsaw, the timing of the U.S. move is particularly delicate as it coincides with the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland.
Analysts are particularly concerned about Ukraine, which faces a presidential election next January. Most of Russia’s vast gas exports flow through its territory and the country reluctantly hosts a large Russian naval base.
Russia has already rebuked Kiev for its “anti-Russian” stance and refused to deal with President Viktor Yushchenko, tactics which recall those used with Georgia in the period leading up to last year’s war.
Diplomats cite the Crimean peninsula — Russian territory until the 1950s and home to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet as well as thousands of Russian passport-holders — as one potential flashpoint.
In a sign of the level of concern, one senior Western envoy here privately estimated the chances of a Russian military intervention in the Crimea over the next year at 50-50.
Georgia could be another tinder box.
Change we can destroy the world and really heat up the Middle East with.