Gallup released it’s final poll for the Presidential race, and it is by far the most muddled and confused poll of all of those released today. The poll shows a virtual tie with Bush at 49 and Kerry at 47 (margin of error 2%). For this poll, Gallup divvied up the 2% undecided between the two candidates and came up with 49 Bush, 49 Kerry. Kerry got every one of the undecideds? Please! Then came the state by state Polls:
â€¢ Florida: Kerry with 49%, Bush with 46%.
â€¢ Ohio: Kerry 50%, Bush 46%.
â€¢ Pennsylvania: Bush 50%, Kerry 46%.
â€¢ Iowa: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%.
â€¢ Minnesota: Kerry leading Bush, 52%-44%.
â€¢ Wisconsin: Bush leading Kerry, 52%-44%.
Bush has consistently led in Florida and lately by a significant margin. Kerry has led consistently in Pennsylvania, but by a much smaller margin. Ohio has been a tossup, and may wind up in Kerry’s column, although it’s highly unlikely. The fact that Bush is so far ahead in PA points to a seriously skewed poll. However, Even if this falls out exactly as shown, Bush wins the election. All he needs is one of the three big eastern states and a conversion of a significant Midwestern state.
One thing we need to keep in mind when viewing these weekend polls, is that weekend polls always come out better for the Dems. Republicans are away from home more on weekends and less likely to answer their phones. If you look back through a history of polls, the only polls where Kerry pulled ahead were taken over a weekend. It’s likely that Gallup is throwing out a tie poll so that, when the election is over, they can claim they were right no matter what. Make sure you get out there and vote. A Kerry presidency would be the worst thing that could happen for Christians in this country.